This is Nothing Compared to the 1990s: Lv Chao on Sino-DPRK Relations

By | January 06, 2012 | No Comments

Lv Chao [吕超], “Around the World, It is Already Commonly Recognized that the Stability of the (Korean) Peninsula Must Be Preserved” [维护半岛稳定已成世界共识],” Huanqiu Shibao, 7:08 A.M., 22 December 2011.

translation by Adam Cathcart, with the assistance of Charles Kraus

The author is the Director of the Research Center for Chinese Borderland History and Geography, Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, PRC [辽宁社科院边疆研究所所长].

Abstract: The maintenance of lasting social stability [社会持续稳定] and economic development in North Korea coincides with our country’s foreign policy for its periphery and the requirements of the development of the Northeast. Presently, the North Korean party and government needs our [China’s] support, both moral and material, and we, along with the morality and justice of the international community, should support and help the North Korean people through financial assistance as they pass through the current difficult stage and firmly safeguard the long-term peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula.

It has been three days since the death of Kim Jong Il was announced by the Korean Central News Agency on December 19.  Irrespective of what the reaction has been within North Korea or especially what the reaction has been in Western countries, there are many more people who wish for tranquility [平静]. The positions laid out by the five foreign ministers of China, America, Russia, South Korea, and Japan all had one thing in common: “maintaining the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula is of the utmost importance.” It should be noted that the position of U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton was one of “extreme restraint” [很克制], while the South Korean National Assembly, after an initial dilemma, finally sent a message of condolence to Pyongyang. These acts illustrate that, since the death of Kim Jong Il, the global consensus has already become for the maintenance of stability on the Korean Peninsula.

In North Korea, the announcement of Kim Jong Il’s death was quite detailed, and the time, place, cause, and even pathology were made available in reports to the public. On one hand, this suggests that the North Korean authorities are striving for domestic stability, fearing that false rumors could bring about disturbances; on the other hand, it also illustrates that the North Korean authorities are still fairly confident that they can control the domestic situation.

From the announcement of Kim Jong Il’s death on the afternoon of December 19 through December 21, North Korea did not seal the borders or close its ports with China. This is a different way of doing things than past emergency situations in Korea, suggesting that North Korea has faith in China, and that the current economic conditions in North Korea cannot persist without trade with China.  We have reason to believe that Kim Jong Un will continue the policy of friendship with China [对华友好政策] from the Kim Jong Il era. China should continue to support the development of state-owned and private economic entities with cooperative economic activities in North Korea.

The crucial point of whether or not North Korean politics can remain peaceful hinges upon the distribution of power among the new leadership. A North Korean state television report said that Kim Jong Un would assume office [担任] as North Korean leader. However, due to the sudden death of Kim Jong Il, [it became evident that] the preparation work by the North Korean regime for succession was incomplete.  In the past, the highest leaders were responsible to Kim Jong Il individually and directly. [Several are listed].  Not only that, but it was under Kim Jong Il’s coordination and direction that they cooperated.

How they will now collaborate with each other during the redistribution of power under the coordination of Kim Jong-un has yet to be seen or tested [在权力重新分配中他们如何在金正恩的协调下合作还有待观察]……

At the moment, North Korea has food shortages.  Outside of Pyongyang, food prices are soaring.  This shows that, at present, the food shortage is likely to continue through 2012. However, the current status of North Korea’s food shortage is not only far better than the 1990s era of the “Bitter March,” it is also slightly better than last year.  Accompanied by the recovery of the Korean international exchange and expansion of foreign trade, the food shortage problem is not insurmountable.

Regarding the position of the U.S., Japan, and the ROK at the death of Kim Jong Il, on the one hand, one can understand the political and economic fatigue in the United States toward involvement in external situations; the country is trapped in the chaos of the Middle East Under these conditions, from the point of view of the U.S., the stability of the Korean Peninsula is essential; it does not want North Korean chaos. On the other hand, we must also see that in the United States, Japan, and South Korea, there are still considerable number of scholars who believe that Kim Jong-un “will not have not a smooth succession,” and that their countries must be prepared to deal the situation in the DPRK with both hands [应该有两手准备]. If any external forces have interest in, or take action towards, destroying the stability of the Korean Peninsula, we must resolutely oppose it.

This year, a few South Korean mass organizations (e.g., NGOs) repeatedly claimed a plan to set up anti-Kim organizations on the Chinese side of the border. China will never allow tolerate having its territory to be used as the base for actions against a third country; these organizations and other subversive activities must be harshly cracked down upon by the relevant authorities.

We need to protect the stability of North Korean society and [undertake] economic development in line with the foreign policy on our frontier and the development needs of the Northeast region. At present, the DPRK party and government need our moral and material aid.  We should give financial assistance and take part in the international community’s moral support, helping the Korean people through the current difficult period and resolutely safeguarding the long-term peace and stability on the Korean peninsula.

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