Collapse Scenarios

Communist Normalcy: How Authoritarian Leaders Disappear and Return

By | October 21, 2014

Kim Jong-un has now made a handful of public appearances since ending his 40+ days out of the public eye, and it appears clear that the young leader’s health was a major cause of his absence. This came as no surprise to analyst Nick Miller.

How Long Will the Umbrellas Hold Out? Report from Hong Kong

By | October 11, 2014

Sino-NK’s Junior Fellow for 2013-2014, Byul Ryan-Im, reports from the barricades of Occupy Central.

A Pragmatic Approach to Collapsing the Regime: A Critique

By | July 15, 2014

In a June 16 op-ed in the New York Times, Sue Mi Terry promoted expediting the end of the North Korean regime. The piece energized analyst Michael Bassett to respond.

Chinese Contingency Plan: An Improbable Scenario

By | May 18, 2014

If the North Korean government collapsed, what would China do? After the leak of an alleged Chinese contingency plan, Dr. Jennifer Lind offers an assessment based upon extensive research.

“Red Lines” and North Korea Metaphors at the National People’s Congress in Beijing

By | March 10, 2014

On Saturday, Chinese Foreign Minister expressed his country’s “red line” for the Korean peninsula. But as Adam Cathcart explains, there are a few other metaphors in play.

PLA General on “Incalculable Damage” of North Korea’s Nuclear Program

By | December 20, 2013

If China begins to see itself as the primary victim of North Korea’s nuclear research, then a more confrontational approach toward Pyongyang becomes possible, reveals a new translation by Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga.