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  1. david
    September 24, 2013

    During the Cold War, I had always believed that the most subversive thing the West could have done would have been to open and fully stock a Safeway supermarket 24 hours a day in Moscow. Spam, 5 kinds of baked beans, fifteen brands of toilet paper demonstrate the differences between public speech and reality to ordinary folk. I would also have streamed The Mary Tyler Moore Show because silly TV sitcoms are based in middle class reality, far beyond the control of propaganda on either side. These two mechanisms would have allowed ordinary folk to reconsider their basic beliefs. And the basic beliefs of ordinary folk matter.

    Three indicators suggest change is likely in North Korea. First, chocopies and CDs of South Korean soap operas and cheap but reliable Chinese clothing are allowing direct comparisons. The markets are important, just as dollar bills are. Second, the Great Currency Confiscation destroyed confidence in stability and the official word of the government: now people appear to be relying on outside money. That is a sign of deep social insecurity. Third, the meth epidemic is demoralizing. Consider our own feelings about drug addiction, where such drugs are recreational options, choices … and now consider the feelings of people whose system is so deficient that, for pain relief, their only choice is to choose between nothing and disaster. They know their options, and resent them.

    The ancient Greeks operated on a rule of thumb that hereditary dictatorships lasted for two generations, and failed in the third. The social disbelief that the article describes for the Soviet Union and which allowed a change from accepted doctrine is already more advanced in North Korea than it was in the 70s there. I don’t think the problem is “when” but “how soon?” Within the next five years.

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