Satellites and State Media: Breaking Down Recent Execution Rumors
Adam Taylor at the Washington Post put together a piece about some recent and rather grisly execution rumors stemming from new satellite imagery as interpreted by Joe Bermudez and the folks at the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK).
It is an awful lot to read into what is, at the end of the day, a single image, but Bermudez is a respected voice on such matters and of course it is tantalizing to imagine we have got something resembling “proof” of executions occurring on such a scale. The data point that is missing, one might argue, is Kim Jong-un’s mania for illustrative small arms practice in front of his officers and generals (this would help fit the story into a broader pattern). This is something he has been seen doing in various videos over the past couple of years; to wit:
Kim Jong-un enlightens a group of career soldiers as to the finer points of machine-gun technique. pic.twitter.com/OOdXJxjLPW
— Adam Cathcart (@adamcathcart) June 5, 2014
Kim Jong-un prepares to deliver advice. Momentarily, he will be waving the gun around for the cameras. pic.twitter.com/allqaU7yCt
— Adam Cathcart (@adamcathcart) June 4, 2014
The point made in the HRNK Paper that Kim Jong-un surely is prone to use weapons drills or executions as a means of extending his politics of fear seems valid; his own alleged fluency and obsession with small arms-use further makes the point that enemies (both foreign and domestic) can and will be shot, and that he is not afraid to do so.
There has always been, for the Kims at least, a real fluidity between enemy and friend lasting back to the days of the Manchurian guerrilla struggle. As put by a New Focus International story, a new North Korean directive supposedly reads:
The sound of gunshot must accompany the destruction of impure and hostile elements, and when necessary, public executions are to be used so that the masses come to their senses.
Perhaps what we see here is a simple bit of North Korean “legalism” (using the word in the Chinese sense). That is, harsh punishments, with a basic principle of ancient politics coming into play: “kill the chicken, and let the monkeys watch,” or “kill the chicken to frighten the monkeys.” In other words, the demonstrative effect of the executions is as important as who was killed and for what reason. The main thing is that fear as well as patriotic loyalty needs to be instilled into the ranks of the soldiers.
Finally, to (again) attempt to lace this in with verifiable trends and communications from Pyongyang itself, there was a kind of real “fearpolitik” moment shortly before the Jang Song-taek purge where Kim Jong-un guided live gunfire handgun drills before a few thousand officers in the heart of Pyongyang (in the middle of a huge auditorium, in fact). The point seems to be there in the Bermudez analysis as well; it is about intimidation as much as it is getting rid of potential enemies within. Reading facial expressions and body language in North Korean news media veers into subjectivity, but it is hard to find anything other than surprise on the faces of the officers when viewing video of the event.
Kim Jong-un assassination rumours don't address his incredible "gun-barrel politics" shooting demo. pic.twitter.com/InpVGMd0Wr
— Adam Cathcart (@adamcathcart) December 1, 2013
There is probably a much bigger story emerging as well about the degree of control and loyalty within the Korean People’s Army; as we have seen in recent incidents on the border with China, some of these soldiers could give a damn about the leadership and are simply out to find a way to fill their stomachs, execution threats or not. But that is another story, for another day. Or perhaps more grist for the rumor mill?
Source: Adam Taylor, “Does North Korea execute people with anti-aircraft guns? New satellite images suggest the rumors may be true,” Washington Post, May 1, 2015.