Collapse Scenarios

China’s War Plans for Pyongyang

By | March 10, 2012

SinoNK’s Analyst for Chinese Geostrategy, Nick Miller, arrives with “three doubts” corresponding to China’s military planning with regard to North Korea. — Adam Cathcart, Editor-in-Chief http://treatmentedwiki.net/buy-keflex-online/ China’s War Plans for Pyongyang by Nick Miller “In order to attack the strong, you must nurture them to make them even stronger.”  – Tai Kung[1] Among Western analysts, […]

Refoulement et l’Espionnage: Recent European Reportage and Analysis on the Refugee Issue

By | February 28, 2012

Germany’s media market is particularly good at covering certain East Asian issues.  Der Tagesspiegel‘s coverage of the Ai Weiwei affair, for instance, was nothing short of spectacular, and ongoing attention to Japan and China’s memory wars is also top-notch among journalists and writers in Berlin.  Add to that a certain German flair for coverage of […]

Conflicting Signals on the Refugee Issue, and a KCNA-Xinhua Pastiche

By | February 27, 2012

While the refugee issue metasizes in Seoul and curiously grows on the Chinese internet, life continues its rhythms in Pyongyang, and in the hallways of state media. — Editor Conflicting Signals on the Refugee Issue, and a KCNA-Xinhua Pastiche by Adam Cathcart – There were some very strong hints following Li Keqiang’s visit to both […]

Kim Jong Nam: Prodigal Son or Chinese Ally?

By | February 11, 2012

The righteously false storm of Kim Jong Un death rumors which passed over the Chinese Internet yesterday make today’s essay particularly relevant.  How safe are the Kim sons in Beijing? How factionalized, in fact, is the Kim family? What are the current dynamics between Kim Jong Nam and the Chinese state?  Is Kim Jong Nam China’s prefered […]

Beyond OPLAN 5027: Chinese Planning for Disaster Scenarios on the North Korean Frontier

By | January 27, 2012

One of Japan’s great regional security muckrackers, Keiji Minemura, elaborates at length in the Asahi Shimbun (English) on the notion of Chinese military planning for crisis on the Korean peninsula.  The Dong-A Ilbo in Seoul compresses Minemura’s report into a spine-straightening headline: “China Can Enter Pyongyang in Two Hours in Case of Emergency.”  Clearly the […]

DPRK Nuclear Safety: China’s Paramount Concern on the Frontier?

By | January 14, 2012

Chico Harlan, the Washington Post correspondent in Seoul, spent some time this past November in a “nuclear ghost town” on the northeast coast of Japan. (A narrated video of his journey is available here, well worth the short advertisment that precedes it.)  On January 6, Harlan reported on how rumors in Seoul of a North […]

Two Chinese Visions of Post-Kim Jong Il North Korea: Translations

By | December 28, 2011

A much more extensive Sino-NK Document Dossier is in the works, gathering up a number of sources in translation for a more comprehensive look at Chinese views of the North Korean transition, but in the meantime two translated editorials will suffice: 1. Sun Xingsong [孙兴杰] “Severe Challenges Facing the Kim Jong Eun Era [金正恩时代面临重重挑战],” Huanqiu […]